Wednesday, September 02, 2009

Concerning our healthcare system

Here's someone else's ideas that are definitely worth a look.

Wednesday, August 05, 2009

Our Cash for Your Clunker

I am not understanding political support for the "cash for clunkers" program. It recently ran out of cash, but as usual, congress is more than happy to open our purse-strings again.

Here is what I think they are thinking: People that already own a car will probably need to buy a new car in the future. Cash for clunkers will encourage them to buy the car now. The program will succeed in improving sales in the near-term at the expense of sales in 2010 or 2011. The program will also help car manufacturers make some revenue during the current market downturn. This revenue will perhaps allow a car manufacturer to weather the storm. After the storm, tax revenues from the manufacturer's profits may exceed the original cost of the program, plus interest.

I'm not convinced.

The likelihood of car manufacturers becoming profitable as a result of the "cash for clunkers" program is about as likely as a sailboat crossing the Atlantic propelled by a bathroom hand dryer. At best, the program will prop up profits for a few months. At worst:
  1. The distraction from realistic demand will weaken the US car manufacturers' competitiveness in the world market, and quicken their demise.
  2. A harmful precedent will be set. "Cash for *****" programs will be started all over the country.
  3. A well-meaning governor, hoping for an election year boost, will start the "Cash for Big Old Guns" program in his state. It launches with great success- citizens cash in their high-caliber arsenals.
  4. The poorly armed residents are ill-prepared for the unforeseen zombie attack. Low caliber weapons don't even slow the approach of the hungry undead.
  5. Strengthened by gorging on the residents of the unarmed state, the zombie army overwhelms adjacent states and nations (e.g. Canada).

Wednesday, July 08, 2009

I told you sos

I wanted to compose some "I told you so" moments for ten years from now. Hopefully, the internet is still around then, and we'll be able to all have a laugh browsing through old blog postings.

The planet is going to get warmer, and nobody can stop it.
Observe the graph. You can see the upswing of CO2 levels about 120,000 years ago. By some measures, it appears that upswing occurred even more precipitously than the current one. People forget that New York used to be covered by glaciers. I'm pleased that things have been getting warmer for thousands of years. I don't expect it will stop it anytime soon.

Universal healthcare isn't worth the price.
After everyone is insured on the government's health plan, fewer and fewer will get into the business of healthcare to make money. Altruism will suffice for a while- but eventually it will become painfully obvious that the key motivators for the creation of new drugs, procedures and medical technology were lost years ago. Doctors will be less skilled, new drugs less frequent, and quality of life (as related to health) will stagnate.
I love the american healthcare system because it consistently produces the best doctors and medicine in the world. There are better ways to minister to the needs of the uninsured.

Buyer's remorse.
The government's purchase of large stakes in previously private companies will raise government's bureaucratic overhead to nightmarish levels. The AIG employee bonus scandal was just a glimpse of what the government can do when given the opportunity. It compounds the problem that the government has a moral duty to uphold justice (in its most infinitesimal form). Strain at the gnat and swallow the camel.